US Trade and Investment Policy: Navigating a Complex and Ever-Changing Landscape
As the US continues to redefine its role in global trade and investment, companies are facing an increasingly complex and risky regulatory environment. The pace of change has been rapid, with policy direction driven largely by executive action, emerging national security priorities, and shifting enforcement patterns. In this article, we will explore the key themes and takeaways from 2025, and what companies can expect in 2026.
Trade and Investment Policy Trends: A New Era of Economic Nationalism
The US administration’s approach to trade and investment has undergone a significant shift in recent years. The current administration has taken a more assertive and transactional approach, focusing on maximizing US leverage and domestic economic outcomes. This has led to a marked increase in tariffs, with many increases exceeding expectations in both scale and scope. The impact of these tariffs has been significant, with companies facing planning challenges, reshaped sourcing strategies, and investment decisions.
The use of executive orders and emergency authorities has become a hallmark of the current administration’s trade policy. This approach has diminished the role of the legislature and increased legal and operational uncertainty for businesses. Companies are now faced with the challenge of navigating a complex web of regulations, with limited clarity on the direction of future policy.
Export Controls and Sanctions: A More Aggressive Enforcement Landscape
The US administration’s priorities have shifted in 2025, with a heightened focus on trade and customs fraud, sanctions violations, and countering China. This has led to an increase in export controls, with a broader jurisdiction and enhanced risk for companies. The expansion of the Entity List has significantly increased due diligence burdens, and companies must now prepare for expanded compliance requirements and documentation expectations.
Sanctions programs have also undergone significant changes, with new designations, expanded investigative tools, and increased exposure risk for companies. The use of FinCEN special measures as a sanctions-like tool has restricted funds transfers involving financial institutions linked to illicit opioid trafficking. Companies must now navigate a complex landscape of sanctions, with multiple programs and designations to consider.
Tariff Expansion and Litigation Outlook: A Changing Regulatory Environment
Tariff activity accelerated significantly in 2025, reshaping import economics and altering long-term strategic planning for US and multinational companies. The use of tariffs as a tool for both economic leverage and national security objectives has affected a wide range of goods and industries. Companies must now assess classification, valuation, country of origin, and eligibility under trade agreements with greater precision.
The Supreme Court’s decision on IEEPA-based tariff authority is expected in early 2026, and could reshape tariff structures, refund potential, and future presidential authority. Companies should prepare for potential refund scenarios under certain tariff programs, particularly if litigation outcomes or negotiations alter duty obligations retroactively.
Practical Impacts for Businesses: Building Agility into Trade Strategy
Companies must now evaluate and strengthen their trade compliance infrastructure, increase visibility into multi-tier supply chains, and reassess sourcing and logistics footprints. Integrating tariff, export control, and sanctions forecasting into budgeting, and updating contractual protections to reduce the risk of indirect violations, are critical steps in navigating the complex regulatory environment.
Building agility into trade strategy will be critical in 2026. Companies must connect policy tracking to procurement, pricing, capital investment, manufacturing, and technology strategy. Those that embed trade intelligence into cross-functional decision-making will be best positioned to thrive in this environment.
Conclusion: Staying Informed in a Rapidly Changing Landscape
The US trade and investment policy landscape is complex and ever-changing. Companies must stay informed and adapt to the latest developments to remain competitive. By understanding the key trends and takeaways from 2025, and preparing for the challenges and opportunities of 2026, companies can navigate the complex regulatory environment and thrive in a rapidly changing world.
