Introduction to the 2026 US National Defense Strategy
The 2026 US National Defense Strategy (NDS) marks a significant shift in American defense priorities, emphasizing a reduced role for the United States in global affairs and a greater focus on the Western Hemisphere and domestic operations. This strategic shift has profound implications for US interests, allies, and the global balance of power.
Shift in Defense Priorities
The NDS prioritizes challenges to US security posed by adversaries in the Western Hemisphere, while downplaying the threat posed by traditional adversaries such as China and Russia. This shift in priorities requires significant adjustments to training, organizational structure, and resourcing within the Department of Defense. The administration’s emphasis on domestic and border operations will necessitate increased attention to training, doctrine, and resourcing, potentially at the expense of other critical operations.
Implications for NATO and European Allies
The implications of the NDS for NATO and European allies are profound. The structural and training changes required to support the NDS’s priorities will be difficult to reverse once enacted and are likely to extend well beyond the Trump administration. European partners and allies should expect declining US participation in terms of fiscal contributions and military engagement as the country’s attention shifts increasingly closer to home. The NDS sets the stage for a permanent shift in the transatlantic defense relationship, and Europe must be prepared to take on a greater role in its own defense.
Securing the Homeland Requires Allies
The 2026 NDS reinforces the Trump administration’s positions on the importance of allies in securing the homeland. The document emphasizes the need for allies to take on a greater role in their own defense, with the US providing critical but limited support. This approach carries significant implications for the North American and European Arctic and its adjacent theaters, where the US relies on allies for access, capabilities, and forces to help track, deter, and defend against potential threats.
Hard Truths and Next Steps for Europe
The NDS presents a hard truth to Europeans: Europe must take on a greater role in its own defense. The document signals the continuation of offensive rhetoric to allies, with the US seeking to incentivize and enable allies to mature as defense actors. European leaders must navigate a delicate balance between maintaining US support and investing in their own long-term independence. In the short term, Europeans will need to cooperate with the US on defense spending and industrial ties, while in the longer term, they will seek greater independence in their security and defense capabilities.
A “Decent Peace” with China
The NDS makes clear that the US is not pivoting away from the Indo-Pacific, with preventing China from dominating the region an explicitly stated objective. The US seeks to establish a “decent peace” with China, characterized by fair trade and respectful relations. However, this approach is based on questionable assumptions about China’s willingness to negotiate seriously with the US on crisis management and strategic stability.
Of Two Minds: The US Legislative and Executive Branches
The US legislative and executive branches approach national defense policy with different philosophies. The NDS sees the belief that the US should always be solving international problems as a danger, while the NDAA urges the modernization of American leadership with European and Indo-Pacific allies. Despite these differences, both documents identify some of the same threats and craft aligned policy solutions on many fronts, including the need for reindustrialization and recognizing border security as national security. Collaboration between the branches is possible, but the distinct philosophies remain a challenge to political unity.
